Bitcoin managed to increase its capitalization by 3% in April, but the cryptocurrency is starting May on a bearish note. At the end of yesterday's trading day, the digital asset formed a large red candle, indicating the dominance of sellers in the market. BTC broke through the important accumulation level of $28.5k.
The asset continues its downward movement, and among the nearest targets, it is worth highlighting the levels of $27k and $28k. The bulls failed to develop an impulsive growth last week into a full-fledged bullish trend, causing the price to turn towards the lower boundary of the range.
Volatility and the Fed meeting
The main reason for the local dominance of bears in this segment of BTC's price movement is the growing level of volatility. Although the bulls also had high potential, an unsuccessful retest of the $30k level strengthened the sellers' positions, and the price went to retest the lower boundary of the channel.
The volatility surge was triggered by the approaching publication of important economic statistics in the U.S. Among the key dates is May 3, when the Federal Reserve will decide the U.S. dollar interest rate. As of May 1, the rate was 5%, and financial markets are confident in a 0.25% increase.
If the data turns out to be better than expected, the U.S. dollar will strengthen, while Bitcoin and high-risk assets will continue to decline. Markets are pricing in an 85%+ probability of a rate hike, so the current decline in BTC is a preliminary reaction to tomorrow's events. A similar situation occurred in April, but the cryptocurrency slightly increased in price at that time.
In addition to the key rate, important data on the U.S. labor market will be published this week. The institution remains resistant to rate hikes, which gives the Fed leeway for further increases, negatively affecting BTC. If unemployment and the number of job openings increase, Bitcoin will receive a "boost" as weakness in the labor market will put pressure on the Federal Reserve.
BTC/USD Analysis
On April 30, Bitcoin touched the $30k level for the last time, after which the asset moved into a correction phase. Over the past two days, BTC has fallen to the $27k level due to the activation of sellers and a significant increase in trading volumes. An important factor in the downward movement is also the negative sentiment in the market.
As of April 2, the price of the cryptocurrency reached the level of $28k, where local consolidation is taking place. The bears managed to stab the $27.7k level, but subsequently, the price returned above $28k. The lower wick of the red candle indicates buying activity near the $27.7k level.
Despite the local buyout, the situation is completely controlled by the bears. Technical metrics point to a further decline in the price: RSI and stochastic continue to move lower below the 40 level. MACD has also resumed its decline and is in danger of falling into the red zone, which will be a clear bearish signal.
Bitcoin will likely continue its downward movement, as the past correction allowed investors to gather liquidity below $27k. Given this, the $26k–$27k area will become the key target of this stage of decline. At the same time, a new stage of price decline may occur when the Federal Reserve makes its final decision.
Conclusion
Bitcoin rushes from the upper to the lower limit of the $25k–$30k fluctuation range due to high volatility. The asset tested the $30k level, which indicates a price decline below the $27k level. At the same time, the $25k level is key for building a bullish trend, so the current correction should be perceived as an opportunity to average positions, remove liquidity and prepare for a second assault of $30k.
