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31.01.2025 05:01 AM
2025年1月31日歐元/美元匯率預測

在昨天的會議上,歐洲中央銀行如預期將其主要利率下調了0.25%。在隨後的聲明中,央行強調其對於採取限制性政策的承諾,這使得市場對於3月份再次降息的預期增強,並且預期到年底總共會進行三次降息。

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然而,歐元並未大幅下跌,只下跌了30點,這主要是由於疲弱的國內生產總值 (GDP) 數據所致。在第四季度,GDP 顯示為零增長,而預期增長為0.1%,年GDP則維持在0.9%,未達到預期的1.0%增長。

需要注意的是,與其他指數相比,GDP有一個獨特的特徵——它通常會隨著後續疲弱數據的累積而產生延遲效應,這可能持續超過一週。下週,將發布歐元區的關鍵通脹數據、採購經理指數(PMI) 報告以及包括失業數據在內的各類美國經濟指標。然而,歐元是從一個顯著偏弱的位置應對這些事件。若能將匯率鞏固於1.0350支撐水平以下,則可能會打開向1.0135目標下滑的大門。

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在四小時圖上,歐元在短暫突破平衡線和MACD指標線後,又從1.0458阻力位反轉,如今已經在其下方盤整。Marlin振盪器從零線轉向下跌。目前,價格在1.0350水平之上盤整,並目標於突破。

Laurie Bailey,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
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