Forex Analysis & Reviews: 30.11.2021 - Energy Crisis and Mining...

30.11.2021 05:00 PM

Energy Crisis and Mining Problems May Hinder Further Bitcoin Recovery: Possible Options of BTC Price Movement

Bitcoin kicks off its new trading week briskly, recovering above an important support area. Technical indicators are overgrowing with bullish signals, and on-chain activity continues to grow, but despite all the local positives, there is a possibility that the current correction will worsen. This is due to the problems that have arisen in the energy industry and the first decrease in the bitcoin hash rate since June 2021. I suppose that this news will be an appetizer served before the main course, which will have a significant negative impact on the growth of bitcoin quotes.

One of the most obvious reasons for the possible aggravation of the correction is its duration and insignificance compared to other similar periods for 2020-2021. However, the probability of aggravation of the correction is supported solely by technical reasons.

There's more disturbing news from the fields of the mining industry, where the difficulty of mining bitcoin has decreased by 1.43%. The probable reason for this is the blocking of mining pool domains in China, as well as a significant shortage of electricity in Kazakhstan. In addition, representatives of the mining industry from Texas and Kyrgyzstan are notifying about the impending energy crisis.

By themselves, minor power outages look like local problems, but the global recognition of energy generation problems raises significant concerns about the future of mining in general. This will be especially acute for Bitcoin, which has already stepped on the path of recovering quotes before a full-fledged bull rally.

If the problem is not resolved or disguised in the near future, then we should expect problems with the main Bitcoin network, the growth of fees, and low transaction speed, which will negatively affect the updating of historical highs.

In the long term, the effect can be commensurate with the situation in June 2021, when BTC was heavily criticized for being unsustainable. In the short term, problems with mining may not have a defining effect and the bull market will start without too many problems. However, its consequences and general excitement can significantly aggravate the crisis issue of energy consumption.

Meanwhile, bitcoin has dropped slightly after the impulse growth but continues to hold the $57k mark, which is a bullish signal. The coin has confidently overcome the resistance zone around $56.4k and is trying to gain a foothold above it. So far, this idea has not been implemented, since the 0.382 Fibo level perfectly plays the role of a resistance zone, which does not let the price go higher.

However, a more global picture indicates an imminent breakdown of this milestone. Judging by the technical indicators, the bullish audience has activated and begun a massive buyback of the bears supply. This is reflected in the growth of the main metrics: the MACD is bullish for the first time in several weeks and begins to move towards zero, while the stochastic and relative strength index settled in a bullish zone, which indicates an increase in the number of purchases and a gradual price movement towards the $60k level.

Taking this into account, I expect that bitcoin will continue its upward movement and will be able to make an impulsive breakdown of the 0.382 Fibo level. Subsequently, this mark will become a support level for the coin while moving to the next line, in the $60k area, which will become an important psychological area, breaking through and consolidating above which will take some time.

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*Disclaimer: The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.