empty
InstaForex Loprais Team - Official participant of the Dakar rally
InstaForex Loprais Team - Official participant of the Dakar rally
This section is designed for those who are just starting their trading journey. InstaForex educational and analytical materials will meet your training needs. Our experts' recommendations will make your first steps to trading success simple and clear.
Start as Beginner
How to start trading
Useful information
Training and recordings
InstaForex innovative services are an essential element of productive investment. We strive to provide our clients with advanced technical capabilities and make their trading routine comfortable as we are recognized as the best broker in this regard.
Become Investor
PAMM System
ForexCopy System
Passive investments
Partnership with InstaForex is beneficial and top-tier. Join our affiliate programs and enjoy bonuses, partner rewards, and the possibility to travel with the team of the world-renowned brand.
Become Partner
Main Page
Partner Area
Advantages for Affiliates
Registration
This section contains the most lucrative offers from InstaForex. Receive bonuses when topping up an account, compete with other traders, and get real prizes even when trading in a demo account.
All Promo Campaigns
Bonuses
Contests
Events
Holidays with InstaForex are not only pleasant but also useful. We offer a one-stop portal, numerous forums, and corporate blogs, where traders can exchange experiences and become successfully integrated into the Forex community.
Full details
Forums
We are in social networks
Forex humour
Forex Portal
InstaForex is an international brand created in 2007. The company provides services for online FX trading and is recognized as one of the world's leading brokers. We have won the trust of more than 7,000,000 retail traders, who have already appreciated our reliability and focus on innovations.
Learn More
History
Why Choose Us
InstaSport
Regulation
Company News
Awards
InstaForex Stars
InstaForex Offline
Headquarters
Key documents
Social Responsibility
15.02.2023 11:56 AM
Gold lost its trump cards
Open trading account Open demo account

Investors' deep faith in a recession in the U.S. economy and in the Fed's dovish reversal acted as a guiding star for the XAUUSD bulls in November–January. Gold rose over this period by 21%, but as soon as cracks began to appear in the slender theory, it immediately collapsed to monthly lows. Strong statistics on the U.S. labor market in January, and the unwillingness of inflation to slow down as quickly as investors would like, put a spoke in the wheels of the precious metal.

It's hard to speculate about a recession when nonfarm payrolls are up by 517k per month, unemployment is falling to its lowest level since 1969, and average wages are up 4.6%, higher than 3.3% before the COVID-19 pandemic. Those who have been burying the U.S. economy are now struggling to justify themselves. Goldman Sachs has lowered the probability of a recession over the next 12 months to 25%. The market says that instead of a soft or hard landing, the plane of the U.S. economy is starting to gain altitude.

Under such conditions, the acceleration of January consumer prices to 0.5% and core inflation to 0.4% MoM looks logical. When domestic demand is high, prices have room to rise. They are not slowing down year-on-year the way investors would like. And the longer the path of inflation to the 2% target, the higher the likelihood of new local highs or bumps that will make the Fed nervous. How could it not, given the experience of the 1970s, when the central bank blinked, believing that the job was done and victory was achieved. The result is a new spike in CPI, a resumption of the cycle of monetary tightening, and another recession.

Dynamics of inflation in the United States

This image is no longer relevant

The Fed does not want to step on the old rake, so it does not take decisiveness now. New York Fed President John Williams does not rule out raising the federal funds rate to 5.5%. The futures market is giving a 94% probability of a 25bps hike in March, 80% in May and 52% in June. If these projections are confirmed, the USD index will continue to rise, and XAUUSD quotes will fall.

Fed Vice Chairman Lael Brainard's move to the White House economics team is also seen as bullish for the U.S. dollar. She had a less hawkish view than Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and that could affect the debate inside the FOMC.

This image is no longer relevant

Thus, the withdrawal of fears about an imminent recession and the shattered illusions about a dovish reversal by the Fed in 2023 deprived gold of its main trump cards. Against the background of the strengthening dollar and rising U.S. Treasury bond yields, the development of a pullback to the upward trend in the precious metal looks very likely.

Technically, on the daily chart of gold, the implementation of the Shark harmonic trading reversal pattern continues. The first of its two targets at 78.6% and 88.6% corresponds to $1775 per ounce. This gives grounds to sell the precious metal on the market as long as its quotes are below the $1,850 pivot point.

Marek Petkovich,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
All Analytics
Fundamental analysis
XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast Gold is showing positive momentum as it attempts to hold above the $3300 level, indicating growing investor interest in this traditional safe-haven asset. The uncertainty surrounding U.S.-China trade relations—highlighted
Irina Yanina
11:33 2025-04-24 +02:00
1720
Fundamental analysis
Trump Is Playing a Game Where Everyone Loses According to a senior official at the European Central Bank, President Donald Trump has drawn the entire world into a game where everyone ends up losing — referring
Jakub Novak
11:21 2025-04-24 +02:00
1855
Breaking Forecast Trading Plan Cryptocurrencies USD/RUB Russian Economy Video Analysis
Trading Instruments
EURUSD GBPUSD USDCHF USDCAD USDJPY AUDUSD EURGBP EURJPY NZDUSD EURNZD Silver Gold #CL #USDX COVID-19 Bitcoin
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Gold is showing positive momentum as it attempts to hold above the $3300 level, indicating growing investor interest in this traditional safe-haven asset. The uncertainty surrounding U.S.-China trade relations—highlighted
Irina Yanina 11:33 2025-04-24 UTC+2

Trump Is Playing a Game Where Everyone Loses

According to a senior official at the European Central Bank, President Donald Trump has drawn the entire world into a game where everyone ends up losing — referring
Jakub Novak 11:21 2025-04-24 UTC+2

Trump Desperately Needs a Deal with China

The U.S. dollar surged sharply against most major currencies after President Donald Trump stated that he plans to be very "courteous" with China in any trade talks and that tariffs
Jakub Novak 11:16 2025-04-24 UTC+2

The Fed Needs More Time to Assess the Situation

While Donald Trump is attempting to reach an understanding with China, Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler stated that the current tariff policy is likely to exert upward pressure on prices
Jakub Novak 10:05 2025-04-24 UTC+2

Powell Can Sleep Soundly

Markets responded with gains, and the US dollar strengthened against the euro and other risk assets after US President Donald Trump said he had no intention of firing Federal Reserve
Jakub Novak 09:59 2025-04-24 UTC+2

The Markets Have Likely Already Passed the Bottom of Their Decline (there is a chance of continued decline in EUR/USD and GBP/USD)

While markets remain focused on trade wars, particularly between the U.S. and China, incoming economic data indicate persistent structural problems in the advanced economies of Europe and the United States
Pati Gani 09:38 2025-04-24 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on April 24? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Few macroeconomic events are scheduled for Thursday, but yesterday's developments showed that the market continues to ignore the majority of data releases. Only a handful of reports are lucky enough
Paolo Greco 06:05 2025-04-24 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview – April 24: Didn't work out? So be it...

On Wednesday, the GBP/USD currency pair managed to avoid a substantial decline, although the day before, it seemed that a downtrend was finally beginning. However, the market quickly bounced back
Paolo Greco 03:16 2025-04-24 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview – April 24: Is it really about Powell?

The EUR/USD currency pair refrained from continuing its decline on Wednesday. As the saying goes, "Everything in moderation." The dollar gained around 200 pips on Tuesday, which shouldn't scare anyone
Paolo Greco 03:16 2025-04-24 UTC+2

The Kiwi Has a Decent Chance to Continue Rising

Inflation in New Zealand in Q1 came in slightly above expectations, rising from 2.2% to 2.5% year-over-year. This was mainly due to the goods sector, while core inflation is slowing
Kuvat Raharjo 00:59 2025-04-24 UTC+2

Top analytics

Relevance up to 04:00 2025-04-25 UTC--4
Trump Is Playing a Game Where Everyone Loses
11:21 2025-04-24
Fundamental analysis
Relevance up to 20:00 2025-04-24 UTC--4
EUR/USD Overview – April 24: Is it really about Powell?
03:16 2025-04-24
Fundamental analysis
Relevance up to 03:00 2025-04-26 UTC--4
GOLD. Gold Prices May Significantly Decline in the Near Future
09:38 2025-04-24
Technical analysis
Relevance up to 02:00 2025-04-26 UTC--4
The Markets Have Likely Already Passed the Bottom of Their Decline (there is a chance of continued decline in EUR/USD and GBP/USD)
09:38 2025-04-24
Fundamental analysis
Relevance up to 01:00 2025-04-25 UTC--4
USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on April 24. Review of Yesterday's Forex Trades
08:26 2025-04-24
Forecast
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
Callback widget
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.