empty
11.04.2025 06:33 PM
EUR/USD Analysis – April 11th

This image is no longer relevant

The wave structure on the 4-hour EUR/USD chart has transformed into a bullish one. I believe there's no doubt that this transformation occurred solely due to the United States' new trade policy. Until February 28 — when the sharp decline of the U.S. dollar began — the entire wave structure looked like a clear bearish trend, with corrective wave 2 under construction. However, Donald Trump's weekly announcements of various tariffs had their effect. Demand for the U.S. currency began to fall rapidly, and now the entire trend segment originating on January 13 has formed a five-wave impulsive pattern.

Based on this, we should now expect the formation of corrective wave 2 of a new bullish trend segment, potentially consisting of three waves. After that, the U.S. currency may continue to decline — unless Donald Trump completely reverses his adopted trade policy. We've witnessed a case where the news backdrop reshaped the wave structure.

The EUR/USD rate climbed 250 basis points on Thursday and added another 170 today. I believe none of my readers are questioning why the dollar lost another 400–500 points over two days. The reason is simple: Donald Trump, who on Wednesday shifted from anger to grace and introduced a grace period for all countries previously targeted by tariffs, immediately raised tariffs on China. First to 125%, then to 145%. I suspected China wouldn't stay silent — and indeed, today Beijing announced a tariff hike on all American goods to 125%. And I suspect this is just a response to Trump's initial tariff increase.

Moreover, in China, some stores have begun applying a 104% surcharge on any goods for American customers. While these are currently isolated incidents, the trend is clear — and I've previously mentioned it. The world is beginning to turn against the United States and Donald Trump personally. American goods are being boycotted in many countries, and the "don't buy American" movement is gaining momentum. Of course, the whole world won't stop buying U.S. products, but even a 20–30% drop in demand would be a significant blow to an economy that's not expecting anything positive in the near future. So what questions can there still be about EUR/USD's movements over the past two days? The wave structure is developing in such a way that corrective waves now have to be hunted for on the charts.

This image is no longer relevant

General Conclusions

Based on the EUR/USD analysis, I conclude that the pair continues to build a new bullish trend segment. Donald Trump's actions reversed the bearish trend. Therefore, in the near term, the wave structure will depend entirely on the U.S. President's stance and actions. This should be kept in mind at all times. According to classic wave analysis, we should expect the formation of a corrective set of waves, typically three. However, wave 2 may already be complete. If this assumption is correct, the formation of wave 3 in the bullish trend segment has already begun — with potential targets reaching as high as the 1.25 level.

On the higher wave scale, the structure has shifted into a bullish phase. A long-term upward wave cycle is likely ahead — but the news flow from Donald Trump personally is capable of flipping everything upside down again.

Key Principles of My Analysis:

  1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex patterns are hard to play out and often change.
  2. If there is uncertainty in the market, it's better to stay out.
  3. There can never be 100% certainty in price direction. Always use protective Stop Loss orders.
  4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.
Chin Zhao,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

GBP/USD Analysis on April 22, 2025

The wave pattern on the GBP/USD chart has also transformed into a bullish, impulsive structure — all "thanks" to Donald Trump. The wave pattern is nearly identical to that

Chin Zhao 20:05 2025-04-22 UTC+2

EUR/USD Analysis on April 21, 2025

The wave structure on the 4-hour chart for EUR/USD has transformed into a bullish formation. I believe there's little doubt that this transformation occurred solely due to the new U.S

Chin Zhao 19:46 2025-04-21 UTC+2

GBP/USD Analysis on April 21, 2025

The wave structure for GBP/USD has also transformed into a bullish, impulsive formation—"thanks" to Donald Trump. The wave picture is nearly identical to that of EUR/USD. Up until February

Chin Zhao 19:44 2025-04-21 UTC+2

Weekly Forecast Based on Simplified Wave Analysis for GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, EUR/JPY, AUD/JPY, and the US Dollar Index — April 21st

GBP/USD Analysis: Since the beginning of this year, GBP/USD has been forming an upward wave on the daily chart. The pair has now reached the boundaries of a wide potential

Isabel Clark 09:31 2025-04-21 UTC+2

Weekly Forecast Based on Simplified Wave Analysis for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/JPY, USD/CAD, NZD/USD, and Gold – April 21st

Analysis:Since February, EUR/USD has been forming an upward wave, with the final part (C) currently in progress. Recently, the pair pushed through the lower boundary of a strong potential reversal

Isabel Clark 09:25 2025-04-21 UTC+2

EUR/USD Analysis on April 17, 2025

The wave structure on the 4-hour EUR/USD chart has shifted into a bullish impulse formation. I believe there's no doubt this transformation occurred solely due to the new U.S. trade

Chin Zhao 19:12 2025-04-17 UTC+2

GBP/USD Analysis on April 17, 2025

The GBP/USD pair remained unchanged on Thursday. While such market behavior might have been expected for Thursday, it was surprising not to see a decline on Wednesday, given the number

Chin Zhao 19:09 2025-04-17 UTC+2

Analysis for EUR/USD on April 16, 2025

The wave structure on the 4-hour chart for the EUR/USD pair has shifted into a bullish formation. I think there's little doubt that this transformation was caused solely

Chin Zhao 18:56 2025-04-16 UTC+2

Analysis for GBP/USD on April 16, 2025

The wave structure of the GBP/USD pair has also transformed into a bullish, impulsive formation — "thanks" to Donald Trump. The wave pattern is almost identical to that of EUR/USD

Chin Zhao 18:53 2025-04-16 UTC+2

Analysis for EUR/USD on April 15, 2025

The wave structure on the 4-hour chart for EUR/USD has shifted into a bullish formation. I believe there's little doubt that this transformation is entirely due to the new U.S

Chin Zhao 19:03 2025-04-15 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.