empty
02.03.2023 10:54 AM
Will the Fed be able to control inflation?

This image is no longer relevant

The main component of the dollar's weakness yesterday was a report from China indicating that their manufacturing sector is growing strongly. It is an important component of China's economic recovery after its massive shutdown. Another factor putting bearish pressure on the dollar was the strength of the euro. Together, these fundamental events led to a 0.39% decline in the dollar.

Also, in the latest report from the Institute for Supply Management, U.S. manufacturing data shows that inflation continues to rise.

The ISM said on Wednesday that the manufacturing purchasing managers' index rose to 47.7% in February from 44.7% in January. These data coincided with the consensus forecast.

The report also noted that activity in the manufacturing sector continues to be at its lowest level since May 2020, when the global economy was forced to stop.

Values of such diffusion indices above 50% mean economic growth, and vice versa. The further away from 50%, higher or lower, the faster or slower the rate of change.

The report said that the price index rose to 51.3%. This is the first time in four months that U.S. producer prices have begun to rise.

Analysts say rising manufacturing prices could mean that the Federal Reserve will not be able to control inflation even as it continues to aggressively tighten monetary policy.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a 73.8% chance that the Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points and 26.2% that the Fed will be more aggressive in raising rates by 50 basis points.

Looking at the components of the report, the new orders index climbed to 47% from 42.5% in January. At the same time, the production index fell to 47.3% from the previous 48%.

The labor market lost momentum, returning to a lower reading of 49.1% from 50.6% in January.

On such mixed data, the dollar is still holding its former positions with small deviations, reinforcing itself with the yield of 10-year bonds.

This image is no longer relevant

Yields on 10-year bonds topped 4% for the first time since October.

Irina Yanina,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

Why Is the Dollar Falling If Tariff Issues Affect Everyone? (Correction Likely for GBP/USD and EUR/USD After Sharp Rally)

The U.S. dollar had recently managed to stay above the key 104.00 mark on the ICE index, giving hope that a further decline might be avoided

Pati Gani 09:12 2025-04-03 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on April 3? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

On Thursday, several macroeconomic events are scheduled, with the U.S. ISM Services PMI being the most significant. At this moment, we believe there is little value in analyzing the macroeconomic

Paolo Greco 07:26 2025-04-03 UTC+2

GBP/USD Pair Overview – April 3. The Market is Tired of Trump's Tariffs

The GBP/USD currency pair continued to trade in a total flat on April 2. What caused the dollar to stop falling? After all, Trump announces new tariffs or teases upcoming

Paolo Greco 06:10 2025-04-03 UTC+2

EUR/USD Pair Overview – April 3. Trump's Tariffs: Not As Simple As It Seems

The EUR/USD currency pair once again spent most of Wednesday virtually motionless. Even in the chart below, it's clear that recent volatility is low and decreasing. Strangely enough, this

Paolo Greco 06:10 2025-04-03 UTC+2

GBP/USD: Optimism from the British Minister and the Risk of Long Positions

The GBP/USD pair is holding firm ahead of Trump's expected tariff announcement. On Tuesday, the pound reached a weekly low of 1.2878, only to sharply reverse and return to 1.29

Irina Manzenko 01:06 2025-04-03 UTC+2

XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Gold continues to rise as investors remain concerned about U.S. President Donald Trump's aggressive trade policy and its impact on the global economy. In addition, ongoing geopolitical tensions serve

Irina Yanina 13:22 2025-04-02 UTC+2

AUD/USD: Analysis and Forecast

Today, the AUD/USD pair is showing positive momentum, rebounding from nearly a four-week low. Support has come from the Reserve Bank of Australia's less "dovish" stance, with the central bank

Irina Yanina 12:25 2025-04-02 UTC+2

Markets May React to New U.S. Tariffs with Growth—But Under One Condition... (GBP/USD Downside and USD/CAD Upside Possible)

The day Donald Trump declared "Liberation Day" has arrived. Markets are bracing for the U.S. to introduce comprehensive and large-scale tariffs on its trade partners and potential retaliatory measures from

Pati Gani 09:51 2025-04-02 UTC+2

The Market Needs Proof

It's too late to be afraid. Rumors are circulating in the market that the White House may implement a universal 20% levy instead of reciprocal tariffs—pushing the average import duty

Marek Petkovich 09:16 2025-04-02 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on April 2? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

There will be very few macroeconomic events on Wednesday, but yesterday showed us that even a large number of macro reports do not always trigger significant movement—even within

Paolo Greco 06:25 2025-04-02 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.